Will "Superintelligence Alignment Seminar (1 month ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

The market favors 'NO' for the seminar making the top fifty posts.

Current market probabilities indicate a strong belief that the 'Superintelligence Alignment Seminar' will not make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review, with a NO probability of 89%. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting limited confidence in the seminar's impact on the platform's annual review.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors a NO outcome at 89%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher YES probability at 14%.
• 3 The edge of 3 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 45 out of 100.
• 5 Time to expiry is significant at over 16400 hours.