Markets / Other / Will the average global temperature in 2026 exceed 2025?...
Manifold Other Expires in 121 days OPEN

Will the average global temperature in 2026 exceed 2025?

71%
Market YES
29%
Market NO
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Pulse Score
Model v1 · Not financial advice
YES
Verdict
68%
AI YES
55
Confidence
45
Reliability
Market appears fairly priced Edge: -3 pts

The market predicts a 71% chance that 2026 will be warmer than 2025.

With a market probability of 71% for a temperature increase in 2026 compared to 2025, the consensus leans towards a warmer future. The Pulse AI also supports this outlook with a 68% probability. The market is considered fairly priced with a slight edge of -3.

AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a warmer 2026.
  • 2 The confidence level is moderate at 55 out of 100.
  • 3 Market probabilities align closely with AI predictions.
  • 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential data shifts.
  • 5 The edge of -3 suggests the market is accurately priced.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
What Could Change This
New climate data indicating significant temperature changes
Major environmental policy changes affecting emissions
Unforeseen natural events impacting global temperatures
Price History
Price history is building — check back in a few hours.
Market Info
Platform Manifold
Volume $1,705
Liquidity $0
Resolves 01 Feb 2027
Status Open
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