Will the control problem be solved before the creation of "weak" Artificial General Intelligence?

The market indicates a low probability of solving the control problem before weak AGI emerges.

Current market probabilities suggest a strong belief that the control problem will not be resolved before the advent of weak AGI, with a 95% likelihood of a NO outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with slightly higher probabilities for a YES outcome. The confidence level is moderate, indicating uncertainty in the predictions.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors a NO outcome at 95%.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a slightly more optimistic view with a 10% YES probability.
• 3 The edge score of 5 indicates insufficient data for a confident assessment.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 45/100, reflecting uncertainty in the predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is extensive, allowing for potential developments in the field.