Will the first AGI build on some novel aspect of the Q* 'breakthrough' that reportedly contributed to the Altman firing?

Market is divided on whether the first AGI will use a novel Q* breakthrough.

The market shows a slight preference for 'NO' at 53.2%, indicating skepticism about the Q* breakthrough's role in AGI development. However, the Pulse AI probability suggests a closer balance, with 'YES' at 51.8%. The low confidence score and edge indicate uncertainty in the data available for making a prediction.

• 1 Current market sentiment is closely split between YES and NO.
• 2 The reported Altman firing adds complexity to the Q* breakthrough narrative.
• 3 Historical trends in AGI predictions show high volatility and uncertainty.
• 4 Liquidity in this market may be affected by new developments in AI research.
• 5 Time to expiry is significant, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.