Markets / Other / Will the German AfD be in power on state (Bundesland) level ...

Manifold Other Expires in 144 days OPEN

Will the German AfD be in power on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?

28.49%

Market YES

71.51%

Market NO

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Pulse Score

Model v1 · Not financial advice

Verdict

31%

AI YES

Confidence

Reliability

Market appears fairly priced Edge: +3 pts

The market indicates a low probability of the AfD being in power by 2026.

Current market probabilities suggest a 28% chance of the AfD gaining power at the state level by the end of 2026, with a stronger consensus against it at 72%. The Pulse AI model slightly increases the likelihood to 31%, but overall confidence remains moderate at 60 out of 100.

AI Market Analysis

1 Market sentiment leans heavily against the AfD gaining power.
2 The probability gap indicates a stable political landscape for current parties.
3 Historical trends show limited success for the AfD at state levels.
4 Liquidity appears adequate, reflecting a balanced market perspective.
5 Time until expiry allows for potential political developments to unfold.