Will the IDF fully withdraw from Gaza by EOY 2026?

7.79%

Market YES

92.21%

Market NO

Trade on Manifold →

Pulse Score

Model v1 · Not financial advice

Verdict

12.79%

AI YES

Confidence

Reliability

Market appears fairly priced Edge: +5 pts

The market indicates a low probability of IDF fully withdrawing from Gaza by the end of 2026.

With a market probability of 7.79% for a full withdrawal by EOY 2026, the sentiment leans heavily towards a NO outcome. The Pulse AI probability is slightly higher at 12.79%, suggesting some uncertainty but still indicating a strong expectation against withdrawal.

AI Market Analysis

1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
2 The probabilities suggest a consensus against a full withdrawal by 2026.
3 Historical context shows prolonged military engagements often extend beyond initial timelines.
4 Market liquidity appears stable, indicating consistent participant interest.
5 Time to expiry allows for potential geopolitical shifts influencing the outcome.