Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

The market indicates a low probability of the Iranian regime falling by June 30.

With a market probability of 20% for the regime's fall, the consensus leans heavily towards stability. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability of 25%, indicating some uncertainty but still favoring the regime's continuity.

• 1 Current market sentiment shows strong confidence in regime stability.
• 2 The gap between market and AI probabilities suggests some market skepticism.
• 3 Historical trends indicate regimes in similar contexts often endure.
• 4 Liquidity in this market appears stable, reflecting investor caution.
• 5 Time to expiry allows for potential developments but remains limited.