Will the Minab school strike be attributed to an Iranian missile by June 2026?

Low probability of attributing the Minab school strike to an Iranian missile by June 2026.

The market shows a significant preference for a NO outcome regarding the attribution of the Minab school strike to an Iranian missile, with a probability of 90.49%. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with a slightly higher YES probability. This suggests a consensus that the evidence or context may not support such an attribution within the given timeframe.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors a NO outcome at 90.49%.
• 2 Pulse AI indicates a slightly higher YES probability at 14.51%.
• 3 The edge of 5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 2650 hours, allowing for potential developments.