Markets / Geopolitics / Will the number of people employed as software developers in...

Manifold Geopolitics Expires in 980 days OPEN

Will the number of people employed as software developers in the US decline by more than 15% from 2023 to 2028?

35.71%

Market YES

64.29%

Market NO

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Pulse Score

Model v1 · Not financial advice

Verdict

40.71%

AI YES

Confidence

Reliability

Market appears fairly priced Edge: +5 pts

Market suggests a low likelihood of a significant decline in software developer employment by 2028.

The prediction market indicates a 64.29% probability that the number of employed software developers in the US will not decline by more than 15% from 2023 to 2028. This aligns closely with the Pulse AI probability, suggesting a consensus on stability in this employment sector over the next five years.

AI Market Analysis

1 Current market sentiment leans towards stability in software developer employment.
2 The probability gap between market and AI predictions is narrow, indicating consensus.
3 A confidence level of 50 suggests uncertainty in future employment trends.
4 The market appears fairly priced with an edge of 5.
5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in employment dynamics.