Will the Russian Federation invade a NATO country before 2028?

Low probability of a Russian invasion of NATO before 2028.

The prediction market indicates a 13% chance of a Russian invasion of a NATO country before 2028, with a consensus leaning towards 'NO' at 87%. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability of 18%, but overall confidence remains moderate at 50 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The probability of invasion is perceived as low, reflecting geopolitical stability.
• 3 Historical context shows NATO's deterrence has been effective against Russian aggression.
• 4 Market liquidity appears adequate, supporting the current pricing.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential geopolitical developments.