Will the S&P 500 decrease by over 5% in one day in 2026?

Market shows a close split on the likelihood of a significant S&P 500 drop in 2026.

The prediction market indicates a nearly even split between the probabilities of the S&P 500 decreasing by over 5% in one day in 2026. With a confidence rating of 55/100 and an edge of 5, the data suggests insufficient clarity for a strong conclusion. The time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in market sentiment.

• 1 Current market probability favors a NO outcome slightly at 56.23%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability suggests a more balanced view with YES at 48.77%.
• 3 The edge of 5 indicates insufficient data for a confident assessment.
• 4 Confidence level of 55/100 reflects uncertainty in market conditions.
• 5 Time to expiry of 7058 hours allows for potential volatility and sentiment shifts.