Will the S&P 500 increase in at least 3 of the 4 quarters of 2026?

The market is evenly split on the S&P 500's quarterly performance in 2026.

With a market probability of 48.54% for an increase in at least 3 of 4 quarters, sentiment is closely divided. The Pulse AI probability suggests a slight lean towards a positive outcome, indicating uncertainty in market expectations for 2026.

• 1 Market sentiment is nearly evenly split on the S&P 500's future performance.
• 2 The probabilities indicate a high level of uncertainty among traders.
• 3 Current economic conditions and forecasts will heavily influence outcomes.
• 4 The time to expiry allows for significant market developments to occur.
• 5 Liquidity appears stable, reflecting balanced interest in both outcomes.