Will the UK Government reverse its current stance by approving at least one new North Sea oil & gas licence in 2026?

The market leans towards the UK Government not approving new North Sea oil & gas licenses in 2026.

Current market probabilities indicate a stronger belief that the UK Government will not reverse its stance on North Sea oil and gas licenses, with a 65.26% likelihood of a 'NO' outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with slightly higher probabilities for approval. The confidence level is moderate, suggesting that while there is some uncertainty, the prevailing view is against new licenses being granted.

• 1 Current market probability favors a 'NO' outcome significantly.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a slightly higher probability for approval than the market.
• 3 Confidence level indicates moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential policy changes.
• 5 Market edge suggests insufficient data for a confident assessment.