Will the United States government detonate a nuclear weapon anywhere in 2026?

The market indicates a low probability of the U.S. detonating a nuclear weapon in 2026.

Current market probabilities suggest a strong consensus against the likelihood of the U.S. government detonating a nuclear weapon in 2026, with a NO probability of 87.64%. The Pulse AI probability is slightly higher for a YES at 19.36%, indicating some uncertainty but still favoring a NO outcome.

• 1 Market probability favors a NO outcome significantly.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a slightly higher probability for YES than the market.
• 3 Current confidence level is moderate at 50/100.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial at 6864 hours, allowing for potential shifts.
• 5 Edge of 7 indicates insufficient data for a confident assessment.