Will the US and Iran announce a formal bilateral ceasefire or de-escalation agreement before June 30, 2026?

The market shows a divided outlook on a US-Iran ceasefire by mid-2026.

With a market probability of 40% for a ceasefire and 60% against, opinions are split. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance of 47% for a ceasefire, indicating uncertainty in geopolitical dynamics. The confidence level is moderate at 55/100, reflecting insufficient data for a decisive assessment.

• 1 Current sentiment leans towards skepticism about a ceasefire.
• 2 Key factors include ongoing tensions and historical conflicts.
• 3 The market reflects a significant degree of uncertainty.
• 4 Liquidity is moderate, indicating cautious interest from participants.
• 5 Time pressure is building with only 2202 hours until the deadline.