Markets / Geopolitics / Will the US conduct additional airstrikes on Iranian soil be...
Manifold Geopolitics Expires today OPEN

Will the US conduct additional airstrikes on Iranian soil before April 25, 2026?

96%
Market YES
4%
Market NO
Trade on Manifold →
Pulse Score
Model v1 · Not financial advice
YES
Verdict
83.6%
AI YES
55
Confidence
35
Reliability
Insufficient data for confident assessment Edge: -11 pts

High probability of US airstrikes on Iran before April 2026.

The prediction market indicates a strong likelihood (94.60%) that the US will conduct additional airstrikes on Iranian soil before April 25, 2026. The Pulse AI also supports this view with an 83.6% probability, though the edge suggests insufficient data for a confident assessment.

AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors the occurrence of airstrikes.
  • 2 The high probability reflects ongoing geopolitical tensions.
  • 3 Historical trends may support the likelihood of military action.
  • 4 Market liquidity appears adequate for current trading activity.
  • 5 Time pressure is moderate with 664 hours until expiry.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
What Could Change This
Escalation in US-Iran tensions
Diplomatic agreements reducing conflict likelihood
Significant changes in US military strategy
Price History
Price history is building — check back in a few hours.
Market Info
Platform Manifold
Volume $1,284
Liquidity $0
Resolves 25 Apr 2026
Status Open
Related Markets
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 3...
99.95% YES polymarket
US forces enter Iran by March 14?...
0.00% NO polymarket
US forces enter Iran by March 7?...
0.00% NO polymarket
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?...
99.95% YES polymarket
US forces enter Iran by March 31?...
1.95% NO polymarket