Will the US government shut down before April 1, 2026?»

High probability of a US government shutdown before April 1, 2026.

The market indicates an 88% probability of a US government shutdown occurring before April 1, 2026, which aligns closely with the Pulse AI prediction of 85%. The confidence level is moderate at 60/100, suggesting some uncertainty despite the strong consensus.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a shutdown.
• 2 Historical trends show frequent government shutdowns during budget disputes.
• 3 Liquidity in this market appears stable with significant participant interest.
• 4 The time to expiry is relatively short at 337 hours, adding urgency.
• 5 Market pricing suggests a balanced view, with a slight edge indicating fair valuation.