Will the US invade Iran before the end of 2026?

The market shows equal chances for a US invasion of Iran by 2026.

With a market probability of 50% for both a US invasion of Iran and not, the situation appears highly uncertain. The Pulse AI probability slightly favors a 'NO' outcome at 53%, indicating a marginally lower expectation for invasion. The confidence level of 60/100 suggests moderate uncertainty among participants.

• 1 Market sentiment is evenly split at 50% for both outcomes.
• 2 Pulse AI indicates a slight lean towards 'NO' at 53%.
• 3 The edge of -3 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level at 60/100 reflects moderate uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is significant at over 7000 hours, allowing for potential developments.