Will the US strike Yemen by April 30, 2026?

The market indicates a lower likelihood of a US strike on Yemen by April 2026.

Current market probabilities suggest a 40% chance of a US strike on Yemen, with a majority (60%) expecting otherwise. The Pulse AI model slightly increases the probability for a strike to 43%, indicating some uncertainty but overall consensus against action. With a confidence level of 60/100 and a fair pricing edge, the market appears stable.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans towards a 'NO' on US strikes.
• 2 The market shows a balanced view with a slight edge towards 'NO'.
• 3 Historical context suggests low frequency of US strikes in Yemen.
• 4 Liquidity appears stable, indicating consistent participant interest.
• 5 Time to expiry is significant, allowing for potential geopolitical shifts.