Will there be another assassination of a US politician before the 2026 midterms?

The market suggests a low probability of a US politician assassination before the 2026 midterms.

Current market probabilities indicate a 16.08% chance of another assassination occurring before the 2026 midterms, with a stronger consensus against it. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, predicting a 19.08% likelihood. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with moderate confidence.

• 1 Market probability favors 'NO' at 83.92%.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a slightly higher 'YES' probability at 19.08%.
• 3 Confidence in the market's pricing is moderate at 60/100.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial at 5508 hours, allowing for potential shifts.
• 5 Current sentiment reflects a general belief in political stability.