Will tweaking current Large Language Models (LLMs) lead us to achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)?

Market favors a NO outcome for LLMs achieving AGI through current tweaks.

The prediction market indicates a strong skepticism regarding the potential of current LLM adjustments to lead to AGI, with 81.24% of participants betting against this outcome. The Pulse AI shows a slightly higher probability for a YES outcome, suggesting some optimism, but overall confidence remains moderate at 45/100.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans heavily towards NO for LLMs achieving AGI.
• 2 The market probability is closely aligned with the Pulse AI's assessment.
• 3 Confidence level indicates moderate uncertainty among participants.
• 4 The time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential developments.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with a low edge of 3.