Will Ukraine become more authoritarian in 2025?

The market leans towards Ukraine not becoming more authoritarian in 2025.

Current market probabilities indicate a 62% likelihood that Ukraine will not become more authoritarian by 2025, contrasting with a 38% chance for a more authoritarian regime. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability for authoritarianism at 43%, but overall confidence remains moderate at 55 out of 100. With 235 hours until expiry, the market appears fairly priced with a low edge of 5.

• 1 Market probability shows a clear preference for a non-authoritarian Ukraine.
• 2 Pulse AI indicates a slightly higher concern for authoritarianism at 43%.
• 3 Confidence level of 55 suggests moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 4 The market edge of 5 indicates fair pricing without significant misalignment.
• 5 Time to expiry of 235 hours allows for potential shifts in sentiment.