Markets / Geopolitics / Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?...
Manifold Geopolitics Expires in 190 days OPEN

Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?

30%
Market YES
70%
Market NO
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Pulse Score
Model v1 · Not financial advice
NO
Verdict
30%
AI YES
55
Confidence
45
Reliability
Market appears fairly priced Edge: +5 pts

Market favors a NO outcome for Ukraine winning the war at 75%.

The prediction market indicates a 75% probability that Ukraine will not win the Russo-Ukrainian War, while the Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance of 30% for a YES outcome. With a confidence level of 55/100 and an edge of 5, the market appears to be fairly priced, reflecting current geopolitical sentiments and conditions.

AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
  • 2 The probability gap between market and AI suggests differing perspectives.
  • 3 Confidence level indicates moderate uncertainty in predictions.
  • 4 Time to expiry allows for potential shifts in geopolitical dynamics.
  • 5 Historical trends may influence future outcomes in similar conflicts.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
What Could Change This
Significant military victories for Ukraine
Major diplomatic breakthroughs or peace negotiations
Changes in international support or sanctions against Russia
Price History
Price history is building — check back in a few hours.
Market Info
Platform Manifold
Volume $220,876
Liquidity $0
Resolves 31 Dec 2026
Status Open
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