Will we get AGI before 2044?

The market predicts a 77.85% chance of AGI being achieved before 2044.

The current market probability for achieving AGI before 2044 stands at 77.85%, indicating strong optimism among participants. The Pulse AI probability is slightly lower at 74.85%, suggesting a consensus but with some caution. The edge of -3 indicates that the market is fairly priced, reflecting balanced sentiment and uncertainty.

• 1 Current market sentiment is highly optimistic about AGI timelines.
• 2 The probability gap between market and Pulse AI is minimal.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate, indicating some uncertainty.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential developments.
• 5 Market appears to be well-balanced with no significant biases.