Markets / Other / Will we get AGI before we discover alien life?...
Manifold Other Expires in 26812 days OPEN

Will we get AGI before we discover alien life?

84.77%
Market YES
15.23%
Market NO
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Pulse Score
Model v1 · Not financial advice
YES
Verdict
83.65%
AI YES
50
Confidence
45
Reliability
Market appears fairly priced Edge: -3 pts

High probability for AGI arrival before alien life discovery.

The market shows an 86.65% probability that AGI will be achieved before we discover alien life. This aligns closely with the Pulse AI probability of 83.65%, indicating a consensus on the timeline for AGI development. With a confidence level of 50/100 and a fair pricing edge of -3, the market reflects balanced expectations.

AI Market Analysis
  • 1 Current sentiment favors AGI development over alien life discovery.
  • 2 Market probabilities suggest strong confidence in AGI timelines.
  • 3 The edge of -3 indicates the market is fairly priced.
  • 4 Confidence level is moderate at 50/100, reflecting uncertainty.
  • 5 Time to expiry is extensive, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
What Could Change This
Breakthrough in AGI research
Discovery of extraterrestrial signals
Major funding shifts in AI or space exploration
Price History
Price history is building — check back in a few hours.
Market Info
Platform Manifold
Volume $10,570
Liquidity $0
Resolves 01 Mar 2100
Status Open
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