Will xAI release a public Grok-4 beta by April 30, 2026?

High probability for xAI to release Grok-4 beta by April 30, 2026.

The market indicates a strong belief, with a 99% probability, that xAI will release a public Grok-4 beta by the specified date. The Pulse AI also supports this sentiment, albeit with a slightly lower probability of 94%. However, the edge of -5 suggests that there is insufficient data for a confident assessment.

• 1 Current sentiment is overwhelmingly positive towards the release.
• 2 Market probability suggests strong confidence among participants.
• 3 Pulse AI's probability aligns closely but indicates some caution.
• 4 The edge score reflects uncertainty due to limited data.
• 5 Time to expiry is short, adding urgency to market dynamics.