10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

Market indicates a low probability of a 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027.

The prediction market shows a 5.90% probability for a 10.0 or above earthquake occurring before 2027, with a strong consensus against it at 94.1%. The market appears fairly priced, suggesting that participants do not anticipate significant seismic activity of this magnitude in the near future.

• 1 Current market sentiment is heavily leaning towards a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 Historical data shows extremely rare occurrences of earthquakes above 10.0 magnitude.
• 3 Market liquidity appears stable, with no significant fluctuations in betting patterns.
• 4 The time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.
• 5 Confidence level of 75/100 indicates moderate certainty in the current predictions.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.