5kt meteor strike in 2026?

The market suggests a low likelihood of a 5kt meteor strike in 2026.

Current market probabilities indicate a 34.5% chance of a 5kt meteor strike occurring in 2026, with the Pulse AI slightly higher at 36%. The confidence level is moderate at 60/100, suggesting uncertainty in the predictions, but the market appears fairly priced with an edge of 1.5.

• 1 Market probability favors 'NO' at 65.5%, indicating skepticism.
• 2 Pulse AI aligns closely with market, suggesting consensus on low risk.
• 3 Confidence level of 60/100 reflects moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 4 Edge of 1.5 indicates the market is fairly priced based on current data.
• 5 Time to expiry is significant at 7123 hours, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.