AI Industry Downturn by December 31, 2026?

The market indicates a low probability of an AI industry downturn by 2026.

With a market probability of 21% for a downturn, the consensus leans towards stability in the AI industry. The Pulse AI probability is slightly higher at 24%, suggesting some caution among participants, but overall confidence remains moderate at 65 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment favors stability over downturn.
• 2 The probability of a downturn is relatively low at 21%.
• 3 Pulse AI's probability aligns closely with market expectations.
• 4 The edge of 3 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.
- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy.
- OpenAI, Inc. is acquired.
- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at:
https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index.
- Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.

This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timefram