AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026?

Market predicts low likelihood of an AI industry downturn by March 2026.

The prediction market indicates a 1.90% probability of an AI industry downturn by March 31, 2026, with a strong consensus against it. The Pulse AI model suggests a slightly higher probability of 5.4%, but overall confidence remains moderate at 60/100.

• 1 Current market sentiment is overwhelmingly against an AI downturn.
• 2 The market is considered fairly priced with a 3.5 edge.
• 3 The time to expiry is substantial at 7120 hours, allowing for potential shifts.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate, indicating some uncertainty in predictions.
• 5 The Pulse AI probability suggests a slightly higher risk perception than the market.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.
- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy.
- OpenAI, Inc. is acquired.
- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at:
https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index.
- Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.

This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timefram