Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 31, 2026?

High probability for another 7.0+ earthquake by May 31, 2026.

The market shows a strong consensus with a 99.55% probability for a 7.0 or above earthquake occurring by the specified date. This aligns closely with the Pulse AI probability of 98.05%, indicating a well-aligned market sentiment. The edge of -1.5 suggests that the market pricing is fairly accurate.

• 1 Market sentiment is overwhelmingly in favor of a significant earthquake occurring.
• 2 The probability reflects a consensus among participants regarding seismic risks.
• 3 Historical data may support the likelihood of such events in the given timeframe.
• 4 Liquidity appears stable, allowing for efficient market operations.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with 1456 hours until expiry.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.