Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?

Market suggests low likelihood of Brazil STF Justice impeachment before 2027.

The prediction market indicates an 80% probability that no Brazil STF Justice will be removed by impeachment before 2027, with a slight edge in the AI probability suggesting a marginally higher chance of 21.5% for a YES outcome. The confidence level is moderate at 60/100, reflecting some uncertainty in the political landscape.

• 1 Current sentiment leans heavily towards NO impeachment.
• 2 Market probability aligns closely with AI predictions, indicating stability.
• 3 Political dynamics in Brazil may influence future probabilities.
• 4 Impeachment processes are often complex and politically charged.
• 5 Time to expiry suggests a long duration for potential developments.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.

Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.