Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?

Low probability of any country withdrawing from the EU before 2027.

The market indicates a strong belief that no country will withdraw from the EU before 2027, with a probability of only 4.5% for a withdrawal. This aligns with the Pulse AI's assessment, suggesting stability within the EU framework. The confidence level of 75 out of 100 indicates a moderate certainty in this prediction.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors continued EU membership.
• 2 Historical trends show low rates of EU withdrawals.
• 3 Political stability in member states supports the NO prediction.
• 4 Market liquidity appears adequate for current trading activity.
• 5 Time to expiry allows for potential developments but remains low risk.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.