Bill Clinton divorce by June 30?

Low probability for Bill Clinton's divorce by June 30, 2024.

The market indicates a 2.4% chance of Bill Clinton getting divorced by June 30, 2024, with a strong consensus leaning towards 'NO' at 97.6%. The confidence level of 75 out of 100 suggests moderate certainty in this prediction, and the market appears fairly priced with no edge detected.

• 1 Current sentiment strongly favors 'NO' on divorce.
• 2 Market probability aligns with Pulse AI's assessment.
• 3 Confidence level indicates moderate certainty in predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry allows for potential developments in personal circumstances.
• 5 No edge suggests market is efficiently priced at this time.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bill Clinton and/or Hillary Clinton announce their intention to divorce by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by the specified date of their intention to divorce will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the divorce later actually occurs, or whether the actual divorce occurs outside of the timeframe of this market.

The resolution source will be statements from Bill Clinton and/or Hillary Clinton, and their representatives, however a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.