Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?

Market indicates a 59% chance for a billionaire wealth tax on California's ballot.

The prediction market shows a 59% probability for the inclusion of a billionaire one-time wealth tax on California's ballot, slightly higher than the Pulse AI's estimate of 57.5%. With a confidence level of 60/100 and a time to expiry of over 2568 hours, the market appears fairly priced with a minor edge of -1.5.

• 1 Current sentiment leans towards a YES for the wealth tax.
• 2 Market probability closely aligns with Pulse AI's assessment.
• 3 Confidence level suggests moderate certainty in the prediction.
• 4 Time to expiry allows for potential shifts in public opinion.
• 5 Market appears to be efficiently priced with minimal edge.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot for the November 3, 2026 election, that proposes a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent), by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Certification means the initiative is officially approved by the California Secretary of State for a statewide ballot.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of California. If unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.