China coup attempt before 2027?

Low probability of a coup attempt in China before 2027, with market favoring stability.

The prediction market indicates a 6% probability of a coup attempt in China before 2027, while the Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability of 9.5%. Overall, the market sentiment leans heavily towards stability, with a confidence level of 60 out of 100. The edge of 3.5 suggests that the market is fairly priced based on current information.

• 1 Current market probability for a coup attempt is low at 6%.
• 2 Pulse AI indicates a slightly higher probability at 9.5%.
• 3 Market sentiment strongly favors stability in China.
• 4 Confidence level in the prediction is moderate at 60/100.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at over 7000 hours, allowing for potential developments.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.

Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.