China x Japan military clash before 2027?

Low probability of a China-Japan military clash before 2027, with market sentiment leaning towards peace.

The prediction market indicates a 15.5% chance of a military clash between China and Japan before 2027, with a stronger consensus against it at 84.5%. The Pulse AI slightly increases the probability to 17.5%, but overall confidence remains moderate at 75 out of 100, suggesting a balanced view on the likelihood of conflict in this timeframe.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors peace between China and Japan.
• 2 Geopolitical stability in the region contributes to low clash probabilities.
• 3 Historical trends show limited military engagement between these nations.
• 4 Market liquidity appears adequate, reflecting investor confidence.
• 5 Time to expiry allows for potential shifts in geopolitical dynamics.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.

Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.