Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by March 31, 2026?

Low probability of Delcy Rodríguez leaving her leadership position by March 2026.

The market indicates a strong belief that Delcy Rodríguez will remain in her leadership role until at least March 2026, with a 97.5% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting limited expectations for a leadership change in the near future.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors Rodríguez remaining in power.
• 2 The probability of her departure is low, indicating stability in her leadership.
• 3 Historical trends suggest incumbents often retain power in similar contexts.
• 4 Liquidity in the market appears adequate for current trading activity.
• 5 With 2694 hours until expiry, time pressure is minimal for potential changes.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Venezuela’s current leader, Acting President Delcy Rodríguez, is removed from power for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Rodríguez will be considered to be removed from power if she resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Acting President of Venezuela within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.