Fact Check: Maduro capture staged?

The market strongly believes Maduro's capture was not staged.

With a market probability of 99.05% for 'NO', there is a strong consensus against the idea that Maduro's capture was staged. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment with a 99% probability for 'NO', indicating a high level of confidence in the current assessment. The edge of 0.05 suggests the market is fairly priced, with a moderate confidence level of 75 out of 100.

• 1 Current sentiment heavily favors the belief that Maduro's capture was not staged.
• 2 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting strong participant confidence.
• 3 The time to expiry is significant, allowing for potential new information to surface.
• 4 Historical context suggests low likelihood of staged political events in similar scenarios.
• 5 The slight edge indicates minimal mispricing in the market probabilities.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is widely and credibly confirmed that the operation to capture Nicolás Maduro was staged or pre-arranged with Maduro (i.e., facilitated, permitted, or agreed to in advance such that Maduro’s capture was not the result of an adversarial raid) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Statements from the U.S. government claiming that the operation was staged or pre-arranged will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. If no broad consensus has been reached by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.