Foreign intervention in Gaza by March 31?

Low probability of foreign intervention in Gaza by March 31, with market favoring no intervention.

The prediction market indicates a strong consensus against foreign intervention in Gaza by the end of March, with a probability of only 5.45% for intervention. This aligns closely with the Pulse AI probability of 8.95%, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with a moderate level of confidence.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors no foreign intervention.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI suggests a slight underestimation of intervention likelihood.
• 3 Historical trends show low rates of foreign intervention in similar conflicts.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, supporting the current pricing.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with 522 hours until market expiry.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if police officers, security forces, or military personnel belonging to neither Israel nor a Palestinian entity begin an officially acknowledged police, military, peacekeeping, and/or security operation on the ground within Gaza by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The foreign personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify.

Entering Israeli controlled buffer zones will not qualify.

Egyptian or other forces operating solely along the Egyptian/Gaza border will not qualify regardless of if they cross the border.

Foreign personnel carrying out individual special operations, diplomatic missions, or solely humanitarian operations will not qualify.

Qualifying deployments must involve active-duty personnel of at least one foreign state or international institution (e.g., the UN or multinational missions) who are officially sent to Gaza for an operational role (e.g., peacekeeping, convoy escort, detention, logistical sup