GOP uses 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by March 31, 2026?

Low probability for GOP using 'Nuclear Option' by March 2026.

The prediction market indicates a strong likelihood against the GOP employing the 'Nuclear Option' to break the filibuster, with a 98.6% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 4.9%. This suggests that while there is some consideration for the option, it remains largely viewed as unlikely within the given timeframe.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 Historical context shows limited use of the 'Nuclear Option' in recent years.
• 3 The market appears fairly priced with a 3.5 edge.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 487 hours, adding urgency.
• 5 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".

Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.