Grok 5 released by March 31, 2026?

The market strongly favors that Grok 5 will not be released by March 31, 2026.

Current market probabilities indicate a high likelihood (98.75%) that Grok 5 will not be released by the specified date. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, with a 97.25% probability for the 'NO' outcome. This suggests a consensus among participants that the release is unlikely within the projected timeframe.

• 1 Market sentiment is overwhelmingly against the release of Grok 5 by the deadline.
• 2 The probabilities suggest a well-informed market with low uncertainty.
• 3 Historical trends in similar product releases may support current predictions.
• 4 Liquidity appears stable, indicating confidence in the current pricing.
• 5 The time to expiry is unknown, which may affect future market dynamics.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," Grok 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public.

Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5 (e.g. Grok 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Grok 4 similar to the progression from Grok 2 to Grok 3. Products labeled as Grok 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.