Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026?

Market indicates a 62.5% chance of a Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026.

The prediction market shows a majority belief in a Houthi strike on Israel, with a probability of 62.5%. However, the Pulse AI suggests a slightly lower probability of 55%, indicating a potential undervaluation of the NO side by 7.5 points. With 62 hours remaining until expiry, market sentiment may shift based on new developments.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans towards a strike occurring.
• 2 The NO side is perceived as undervalued by 7.5 points.
• 3 Confidence in the market is moderate at 60/100.
• 4 Time pressure is significant with only 62 hours until expiry.
• 5 Historical context may influence perceptions of Houthi capabilities.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Houthis initiate a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Houthi forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.

Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution—regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third