Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026?

Market indicates a lower likelihood of a Houthi strike on Israel by March 2026.

The prediction market shows a 37% probability for a Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026, with a stronger consensus against it at 63%. The Pulse AI slightly adjusts this to 39% for YES and 61% for NO, suggesting a fairly balanced market with a confidence level of 75 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans towards NO with 63% probability.
• 2 Pulse AI's probability aligns closely with market expectations.
• 3 Confidence level of 75 indicates moderate certainty in predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 523 hours, adding urgency.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 2.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Houthis initiate a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Houthi forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.

Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution—regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third