Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?

Market indicates a low likelihood of the Insurrection Act being invoked by year-end.

The current market probability for the Insurrection Act being invoked by December 31 stands at 29.5%, with a stronger consensus against it at 70.5%. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely, suggesting a fair market pricing with a slight edge towards the NO outcome. Confidence in this prediction is moderate at 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The probabilities suggest a stable consensus among traders.
• 3 Historical context shows low invocation rates of the Insurrection Act.
• 4 Liquidity appears adequate for market movements.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with over 7000 hours until expiry.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.