Insurrection Act invoked by March 31?

Low probability of the Insurrection Act being invoked by March 31.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against the invocation of the Insurrection Act by March 31, with a 96.95% probability for 'NO.' The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, indicating a slight increase in the likelihood but still favoring 'NO' at 95.45%. Given the current probabilities, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors 'NO' at 96.95%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 4.55%.
• 3 Market confidence is moderate at 60 out of 100.
• 4 The edge of 1.5 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at over 7000 hours, allowing for potential shifts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.