Iran coup attempt by June 30?

Market suggests low likelihood of an Iran coup attempt by June 30.

The prediction market indicates a 32.5% probability of a coup attempt in Iran by the end of June, with a stronger consensus against it at 67.5%. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, showing a slight edge towards the 'YES' side but overall confidence remains moderate.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans towards a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The probabilities suggest a balanced view on potential instability in Iran.
• 3 Historical context shows low frequency of successful coups in Iran.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.
• 5 Time until expiry allows for potential developments influencing the outcome.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.

Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.