Iran leadership change by April 30?

Market leans towards no leadership change in Iran by April 30.

The market indicates a higher probability for no leadership change in Iran by the end of April, with a 53.5% chance compared to 46.5% for yes. The Pulse AI also supports this view, suggesting a stronger likelihood of stability in the current leadership. The edge of -6 points for the no side indicates potential undervaluation in the market's assessment.

• 1 Current sentiment favors stability in Iran's leadership.
• 2 Market probability shows a slight lean towards no change.
• 3 Pulse AI suggests a stronger no probability at 59.5%.
• 4 The edge indicates potential undervaluation of the no side.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for evolving geopolitical dynamics.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.

An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.