Iran leadership change by December 31?

Market indicates a 59% chance of leadership change in Iran by year-end.

The prediction market shows a 59% probability for a leadership change in Iran by December 31, suggesting a significant expectation of political shifts. However, the Pulse AI probability is slightly lower at 53%, indicating a more cautious outlook. The edge of -6 points for the NO side suggests that it may be undervalued, reflecting uncertainty in the current political landscape.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans towards a leadership change.
• 2 Political stability in Iran remains a critical factor.
• 3 Historical trends show fluctuations in leadership probabilities.
• 4 Market liquidity is moderate, impacting price movements.
• 5 Time pressure is significant with only 7108 hours until expiry.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.

An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.