Iran leadership change by March 31?

Market indicates a low probability of Iran leadership change by March 31.

The prediction market shows a 31.5% chance of a leadership change in Iran by the end of March, with a stronger consensus against it at 68.5%. The AI probability slightly favors a change at 33.5%, suggesting a modest divergence in sentiment but overall agreement on stability in leadership.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans heavily towards stability in Iran's leadership.
• 2 The probabilities suggest a consensus that change is unlikely in the near term.
• 3 Historical trends show leadership changes in Iran are infrequent.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting confidence in current predictions.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate, with over 7000 hours until the deadline.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.

An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.